Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion every time there are concerns that economic growth is faltering or potential threats become more than potential, like the recent chapter in the Greek tragedy.Today, with the economy growing, albeit
Sat, 19 May 2012 08:33:05 PDT
The Weekly Bottom Line
Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Fears that Greece will soon leave the euro zone rose as the country's unstable politics undermine its economic reform process and a shrinking deposit base threatens its banks. Beyond the Hellenic Republic, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades, the euro remained under pressure and
Sat, 19 May 2012 08:16:08 PDT
Weekly Review and Outlook: Risk Markets to Stablize Briefly after Steep Selloff, But Vulnerable ...
Risk aversion dominated markets last week and wold stock markets turned negative for the year as MSCI world index erased all it's gains this year. We're talking about S&P 500 having the losing losing streak since last August. Major European indices fell last week with notable fall in FTSE by
Sat, 19 May 2012 04:37:17 PDT
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2641 last week and formed a short term bottom there, above 1.2625 low, and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2844) and above. But strong resistance should be seen below 1.2994
Sat, 19 May 2012 03:33:13 PDT
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's decline continued last week and reached as low as 78.99, breaking mentioned 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13. Initial bias remains on the downside the week and current fall should target 75.56/76.02 support zone in near term. On the upside, break of 80.54 resistance is needed to
Sat, 19 May 2012 03:27:02 PDT
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's fall from 1.6300 accelerated to as low as 1.5731 last week before forming a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5731 at 1.5948 and bring fall resumption.
Sat, 19 May 2012 03:16:17 PDT
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF's rally extended further to as high as 0.9499 last week before making a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9351) and below. But downside is expected to be contained by 38.2%
Sat, 19 May 2012 03:08:01 PDT
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's decline extended further last week as expected and reached as low as 0.9794 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9663 support first, then 161.8% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 0.9459. On the upside, above 0.9957 minor resistance will turn bias neutral
Sat, 19 May 2012 02:51:36 PDT
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
Last week's strong rally in USD/CAD confirmed that consolidation pattern from 1.0656 is finished with three waves down to 0.9799. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.0063 support holds, even in case of retreat. Current rally from 0.9799 is expected to extend to 1.0522/0656 resistance zone next.
Sat, 19 May 2012 02:39:51 PDT
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY dived to as low as 124.64 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current fall from 133.48 should target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 133.48 at 123.19 next. Sustained break there will target a test on 116.83/117.29
Sat, 19 May 2012 00:05:59 PDT
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's fall from 111.43 accelerated to as low as 100.20 last week and there is no so sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current decline should extend to retest 97.03 low next. On the upside, above 101.90 will turn bias neutral and bring
Sat, 19 May 2012 00:04:37 PDT
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
After initial dive to 0.7949, EUR/GBP formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for further rally to 38.2% retracement of 0.8505 to 0.7949 at 0.8161. But upside should be limited there and bring another decline. Below 0.8024 minor support will
Fri, 18 May 2012 23:54:11 PDT
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as the sideway consolidation continued. Near term Outlook remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen inside 1.2000/2034 zone. Downside of any selloff attempt should be contained by SNB's 1.2 floor and bring recovery. On the upside, breach of 1.2034 could be seen on
Fri, 18 May 2012 23:30:03 PDT
Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the
Fri, 18 May 2012 21:09:14 PDT
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9380
Despite intra-day resumption of recent upmove to indicated projection target at 0.9500 (1.236 times projection of 0.8931-0.9335 measuring from 0.9002), as dollar has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to minor support at 0.9421, then the lower Kumo (now at 0.9410) is likely but 0.9372-79 (previous
Fri, 18 May 2012 08:42:26 PDT
Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5930
Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.5732 on massive risk aversion, current rebound suggests a minor low is formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5865), however, upside should be limited to previous support at 1.5889 and renewed selling interests
Fri, 18 May 2012 08:35:55 PDT
Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2810
Despite intra-day resumption of decline to 1.2642, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest minor low is possibly formed and retracement to previous resistance at 1.2759 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 1.2765) and renewed selling interests should emerge
Fri, 18 May 2012 08:25:54 PDT
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Stand aside
Yesterday’s selloff together with the breach of previous support at 79.43 suggests early decline has resumed and near term downside risk remains for further weakness towards 79.00, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 78.70/75 and reckon 78.50 would hold from here, risk from there
Fri, 18 May 2012 08:21:01 PDT
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8100
As the single currency has staged a strong rebound after falling marginally to 0.7951, suggesting a minor low is possibly formed and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 0.8075-80, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.8100 and bring another decline. A breach of said
Fri, 18 May 2012 07:35:02 PDT
Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0000
Although the greenback extended recent rise to as high as 1.0227, as price has retreated from there, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0100 and possibly 1.0053 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.000 and bring another rise later. A break of
Fri, 18 May 2012 07:24:24 PDT
